Press: News clips

Report: Housing hurt by economy
by Brent Curtis
Herald Staff

The biggest obstacle to providing better, more affordable housing in Rutland County is the local economy, according to a comprehensive housing needs assessment released this week.

The 2-inch-thick study analyzes housing trends in every Rutland County town during the past 25 to 35 years, compares them to state averages and attempts to explain what forces are driving the numbers.

Probably the biggest factor, according to John Ryan, the housing consultant who worked three years to prepare the report, is the region's sagging economy and low wages relative to the rest of the state.

"What I found was a sense of the county gradually falling behind," Ryan told a gathering of about 50 people at the Rutland Housing Authority's offices on Tuesday. "The county has a lower population, wages, an aging population and more people leaving than what's seen in other parts of Vermont and New England."

No amount of hammers and nails were going to reverse those trends or the housing problems they spur, he said.

"Housing is crucial, but a lot of the energy I would put in this county is in economic development and job growth because that's what is affecting housing the most," Ryan said.

There's ample statistical information in the needs assessment to make such a case.

While rent and the cost of houses are comparable to the rest of the state, household incomes and wages are lagging behind, according to the study.

From 1980 to 2000, Rutland County ranked 13th out of the state's 14 county's for median income growth. The county ranked 10th in wage growth for the same time period and 11th among the state's counties for job growth, according to the report.

"Rents in the region are not higher compared to other regions, but the number of people earning under $20,000 a year is higher," Ryan said.

Lowering rents probably isn't the answer, he added, because much of the housing and rental stock in the county is older and in worse shape than elsewhere in the state. If landlords lowered rents, the quality of housing in the area would drop, he said.

But its not just rental properties or affordable homes that have become hard to attain, he said.

During the past three years, housing prices have increased about 30 percent after a decade of stability. Ryan said that's because many people who bought starter homes in the region 10 or 15 years ago are trying to trade up to homes in the $175,000 — $250,000 range.

But homes in that price range are hard to find now due in part to increased demand.

"Inflation has as much to do with the lack of supply as anything else I've seen," Ryan said.

In a twist where the usual market forces seem to be hindered, Ryan said most developers are reluctant to build homes in the desired price range because the building and material costs for those homes were unprofitable.

In addition, Ryan said the county's need for senior housing — especially in Rutland City — would grow as more of the population nears age 65. At the other end of the spectrum, he said a demographic bubble of teenagers would soon need affordable apartments and homes if communities wanted to keep young people from moving away.

"That segment of the population has more often than not just left the area," he said. "There needs to be more jobs for them or it will continue."

There was a lot of nodding in the room as Ryan listed his findings. The housing officials, bankers, realtors, state and local officials and planners who filled the room had long known much of what Ryan was telling them, they just never had the statistical proof.

To some extent, proving what was previously only understood anecdotally was one of the study's goals.
City Alderman William Gillam said the needs assessment was born from discussions with the Rutland County Community Land Trust three years ago. At that time, the Land Trust was asking for the city's help to secure state housing grants — which all require a needs analysis to prove a project is worthwhile.

"They were having a hard time getting grants," Gillam said Tuesday. "This will certainly strengthen our arguments. Instead of saying we want to fix X, Y and Z, we can show how regional issues are affecting housing across all levels."

Housing officials said they are also planning to pore over the results of Ryan's work to develop strategies for addressing housing needs in the future.

"We will be studying the study," said Elisabeth Kulas, executive director of the Land Trust — one of eight agencies and municipalities that sponsored the study.

A task force made up of a variety of agency, state and local representatives will study the report over the next few months, she said. After familiarizing themselves, task force members will share what they have learned with their peers in roundtable discussions that Kulas said would be used as a basis for formulating future strategies.

Copies of the study will be given to each of Rutland County's 28 communities to display to the public in town and city offices, she said. In addition, the report will also be given to some libraries in the region.

Contact Brent Curtis at brent.curtis@rutlandherald.com.